Method & sources

How we work out what a degree pays back

795 US universities carry a payback figure on this site. This page sets out exactly how each one is produced, what it cannot tell you, and the cases where we publish nothing at all.

1. Where the numbers come from

Every figure is a published value from the US Department of Education College Scorecard, which is assembled from federal tax records and financial-aid files rather than from institutions describing themselves. We import median earnings ten years after entry, median federal loan debt at graduation, average net price, completion rate and admission rate, and we store the Scorecard's own institution id so later refreshes update the same record.

Matching is done on a normalised name, and where we hold a state for a university it has to agree with the Scorecard's. Where two institutions share a name and the state cannot separate them, we import nothing — attaching one university's salary figures to another would be worse than having no page.

2. The payback calculation

A degree is worth what it adds over not having one, so the sum is:

Salary premium
earnings − $39,520
Payback years
debt ÷ premium
Monthly repayment
10 yrs @ 6.53%

$39,520 is the median earnings of a US worker whose highest qualification is a high-school diploma. Two guard rails keep the result honest: where the premium is under $2,000 a year we publish no payback at all — dividing by a premium of a few dollars produces answers in the hundreds of years, which is arithmetic rather than information — and the figure is capped at 30 years, shown as "30+".

3. The grades

Grades are percentiles of the actual spread, recomputed whenever the data is refreshed, so a C genuinely means "average for a US university" rather than "passed a threshold we picked".

A clears within 0.58 yrs
120 · 15%
B clears within 0.96 yrs
158 · 20%
C clears within 1.68 yrs
239 · 30%
D clears within 2.68 yrs
158 · 20%
F clears within 11.86 yrs
120 · 15%

A university whose graduates show no measurable premium over a high-school diploma keeps no grade at all rather than an F by default — there is no payback period to place on the curve.

4. What these figures cannot tell you

They are not per subject. The Scorecard publishes one figure per institution, so a nursing cohort and a fine-art cohort at the same university are blended into a single median. A specialist school will always look stronger than a broad university teaching the same subject just as well.

They include people who left without finishing. That is deliberate — it measures the risk of enrolling, not the reward of graduating — but it pulls down universities serving students who stop and restart.

They ignore private borrowing. Only federal loans appear, so families who financed study another way show as low debt.

They are US-only. The Scorecard is a US dataset; we do not apply it to universities elsewhere, and we do not estimate a substitute.

5. Corrections

The underlying records are federal and can be checked against the College Scorecard directly. If you believe we have matched the wrong institution — most likely where universities have merged or renamed — tell us and we will correct the mapping. We do not remove a correct figure on request.

Questions about the method

What data do the payback figures use?
Only the US College Scorecard: median earnings ten years after entry, median federal debt at graduation, average net price, completion and admission rates. It is built from tax and financial-aid records, not from surveys or university submissions.
How is payback calculated?
Median debt ÷ (median earnings − $39,520). The subtraction is the point: a degree is worth what it adds over not having one, so we measure against what a US worker with only a high-school diploma earns.
Why are the grades a curve?
Because fixed thresholds tell you how generous the thresholds were, not how good the university is. Our cut-offs are percentiles of the real distribution and move every time the data is refreshed.
When do you refuse to publish a figure?
When either number is unpublished, when the salary premium is under $2,000 a year (the division stops meaning anything), and when the cohort is too small for the Department of Education to report. Those universities get no payback page at all.
Does this replace your university grade?
No. The A–F grade on a university profile is about quality — QS standing, selectivity, graduation. This is purely about money. Read them together.

Information only, not financial advice. We are not a lender or a licensed adviser.